Overconfidence Impact on Safety

Overconfidence Impact on Safety

 

Confidence is essential ingredient of success in a wide range of domains ranging from job performance and mental health to sports, business and combat.

Some authors have suggested that not just confidence but overconfidence-believing you are better than you are in reality-is advantageous because it serves to increase ambition, morals, and persistence. However, overconfidence also leads to faulty assessments, unrealistic expectations and hazardous decisions.

Scientists have determined that overconfidence causes people to overestimate their knowledge, underestimate risks, and exaggerate their ability to control events. Thus, overconfidence plays a major role in the root causes of many accidents that take place in the industry.

People tend to have a deeply rooted overconfidence in their beliefs and judgments mainly because overconfidence is not recognized or rewarded in practice nor introduced during formal education. Overconfidence has remained a hidden defect in managerial decision making.

This program will promote awareness of overconfidence, its causes, costs and remedies.

 

Objectives

·        Becoming aware of the meaning of overconfidence.

·        Identifying the causes of overconfidence.

·        Identifying factors that affect people`s decision making.

·        Is overconfidence good or bad for us?

·        Do the benefits of overconfidence outweigh its costs?

·        What are the implications of overconfidence for real life situations?

·        How to overcome overconfidence?

 

Outline

1.   What is Overconfidence?

2.   Causes of Overconfidence

·        Availability

·        Anchoring

·        The Confirmation Bias

·        Hindsight

 

3.   Practical implications of Overconfidence

·        Lawsuits

·        Strikes

·        Wars

·        Crashes

·        Accidents

 

4.   Techniques to overcome Overconfidence

·        Acknowledgment of Overconfidence

·        Systematic and accelerated Feedback

·        Accountability

·        Keeping better track of managerial judgments and estimates.

·        Performance review

·        Training programs

·        Counterargumention

·        Paths to trouble

·        Paths to the future

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